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EUR/USD - 0.9598 Euro's weakness to 0.9570 in New York yesterday following a rebound from Monday's fresh 2-decade low of 0.9559 to 0.9701 suggests re-test of 0.9559 would be seen after range trading, break extends downtrend to 0.9520 but loss of momentum may limit weakness to 0.9485. On the upside, only a daily close above 0.9652 would prolong choppy sideways swings and risk 0.9670, break, 0.9701. Data to be released on Wednesday: U.K. BRC shop price index, Australia retail sales, Japan coincident index, leading index, Germany Gfk consumer confidence, France consumer confidence, Italy business confidence, consumer confidence, industrial sales. U.S....

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28

2022-09

EUR/USD: Daily recommendations on major

EUR/USD - 0.9598 Euro's weakness to 0.9570 in New York yesterday following a rebound from Monday's fresh 2-decade low of 0.9559 to 0.9701 suggests re-test of 0.9559 would be seen after range trading, break extends downtrend to 0.9520 but loss of momentum may limit weakness to 0.9485. On the upside, only a daily close above 0.9652 would prolong choppy sideways swings and risk 0.9670, break, 0.9701. Data to be released on Wednesday: U.K. BRC shop price index, Australia retail sales, Japan coincident index, leading index, Germany Gfk consumer confidence, France consumer confidence, Italy business confidence, consumer confidence, industrial sales. U.S....


27

2022-09

EUR/USD: Daily recommendations on major

EUR/USD - 0.9630 Yesterday's cable-led weakness to a fresh 2-decade trough of 0.9559 (Asia) signals recent downtrend remains in force and as price has fallen in New York after a short-covering bounce to 0.9701 (Europe), further fall to 0.9500 is likely but 0.9475/80 may hold. On the downside, only a daily close above 0.9669 would prolong choppy sideways swings and risk stronger gain to 0.9701/05. Data to be released on Tuesday Italy trade balance non-EU. U.S. building permits, durable goods, durables ex-transport, durables ex-defense, redbook, monthly home price, consumer confidence, new home sales and Richmond Fed manufacturing.


27

2022-09

USA depression likely and watch for currency intervention

It has been easy, but we need to be on our toes now. 1. Stocks and currencies can have an accelerated crash! 2. All my currency forecasts made in December have now occurred, and the further potential targets look real too. It has been very easy to this point. Now, that the world suddenly has the same ideas we highlighted 6-12 months ago, it is time to get back on our toes. We are approaching levels where individual central banks and governments, as well as some form of joint statement, suggesting currencies need to stabilise is approaching. This will create...


27

2022-09

The sterling crisis: the BOE is set to step in, but what will it say?

The pound remains in crisis, it had another surge lower to $1.0350 overnight, although it has recouped all losses at the time of writing, caused by expectations that the Bank of England will release a statement or hold an emergency rate hiking meeting soon. The “doom spiral” for the pound is only being remedied on Monday by the prospect of BOE action, however, according to Bloomberg, the BOE has yet to decide if it will make a statement on the pound’s collapse to its lowest ever level versus the USD, and instead is watching the market closely. While the FX...


26

2022-09

EUR/USD nosedives to new 20-year low, dollar rallies

Key highlights EUR/USD declined heavily below the 0.9900 support zone. It broke a major bullish trend line at 0.9970 on the 4-hours chart. EUR/USD technical analysis Looking at the 4-hours chart, the pair traded below the 0.9980 support level and a major bullish trend line. It opened the doors for a sharp move below the 0.9900 support zone. The pair settled below the 0.9900 level, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours). The decline gained pace below the 0.9800 support zone and the pair even traded below 0.9700. There was a more...


25

2022-09

EUR/USD downtrend deepens on mounting recession [Video]

EUR/USD kick-started a new round of declines as flash PMIs figures across Europe pointed at a further fall in business activities with both the EU services and manufacturing PMIs edging lower in the contraction area weaker than expected. As seen on the four-hour chart, a decisive break below the 0.98065 barrier paved the way for euro sellers to try the 0.97434 hurdle, around the 161.8% Fibonacci projection of the last upswing from 0.98065 to 0.99086. If selling pressure intensifies at 0.97434, the price may overcome this obstacle, heading towards the next support at 0.97044. Further push below this level can...


25

2022-09

WTI oil outlook: WTI oil collapses to 8-month low on growing recession fears

WTI oil WTI oil price tumbled on Friday, hitting the lowest levels since early January, as dollar spiked to new 20-year high and growing demand fears as sharp increase of interest rates is driving major economies into recession. The contract was down over 5.5% for the day until now, with losses likely to extend as bears accelerated through key technical supports. Break of former low at $81.17 (Sep 8) signaled an end of corrective phase, with violation of psychological $80 support, adding to negative signals. WTI is on track for the fourth straight weekly drop, with likely weekly close below...


25

2022-09

Economic conditions, market performance worsen after Fed rate hike

Precious metals markets are trying to tough this week despite another large rate hike by the Federal Reserve. On Wednesday, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by three quarters as expected. Fed chairman Jerome Powell vowed to bring inflation down and restore price stability. Jerome Powell: My colleagues and I are strongly committed to bringing inflation back down to our 2% goal. We have both the tools we need and the resolve that it will take to restore price stability on behalf of American families and businesses. Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve and serves as...


25

2022-09

Lights, camera…action! Central banks take center stage

Central banks were front and center this week, as major institutions such as the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan (BoJ) and Bank of England (BoE) met to assess monetary policy in their respective economies. At a high level, policymakers generally communicated a hawkish outlook for monetary policy, although the Fed's updated “Dot Plot” garnered the most attention and resulted in renewed volatility across global financial markets. However, the BoJ's commitment to accommodative monetary policy and FX intervention from the Ministry of Finance were also notable, while U.K. financial markets tumbled in the aftermath of the BoE announcement and government fiscal...


25

2022-09

Treasuries flashing red

S&P 500 continued its downswing without much of a respite even though bonds favored stocks to reach higher than they did one hour before the closing bell. Interestingly, VIX has barely moved in spite of the quite meaningful downside continuation – let alone Wednesday‘s reversal that caught so many off guard. Thankfully not you! Today, we‘re already below my direction-setting level described in these two tweets. USD is up, and much of the forex antidollar plays in disarray (beyond the usual suspect, Japan) – this isn‘t yet a dollar top. That‘s a consequence of Treasuries price action – no top...


  • EUR/USD - 0.9598 Euro's weakness to 0.9570 in New York yesterday following a rebound from Monday's fresh 2-decade low of 0.9559 to 0.9701 suggests re-test of 0.9559 would be seen after range trading, break extends downtrend to 0.9520 but loss of momentum may limit weakness to 0.9485. On the upside, only a daily close above 0.9652 would prolong choppy sideways swings and risk 0.9670, break, 0.9701. Data to be released on Wednesday: U.K. BRC shop price index, Australia retail sales, Japan coincident index, leading index, Germany Gfk consumer confidence, France consumer confidence, Italy business confidence, consumer confidence, industrial sales. U.S. MBA mortgage application, goods trade balance, wholesale inventories and pending home sales.
  • EUR/USD - 0.9630 Yesterday's cable-led weakness to a fresh 2-decade trough of 0.9559 (Asia) signals recent downtrend remains in force and as price has fallen in New York after a short-covering bounce to 0.9701 (Europe), further fall to 0.9500 is likely but 0.9475/80 may hold. On the downside, only a daily close above 0.9669 would prolong choppy sideways swings and risk stronger gain to 0.9701/05. Data to be released on Tuesday Italy trade balance non-EU. U.S. building permits, durable goods, durables ex-transport, durables ex-defense, redbook, monthly home price, consumer confidence, new home sales and Richmond Fed manufacturing.
  • It has been easy, but we need to be on our toes now. 1. Stocks and currencies can have an accelerated crash! 2. All my currency forecasts made in December have now occurred, and the further potential targets look real too. It has been very easy to this point. Now, that the world suddenly has the same ideas we highlighted 6-12 months ago, it is time to get back on our toes. We are approaching levels where individual central banks and governments, as well as some form of joint statement, suggesting currencies need to stabilise is approaching. This will create volatility. It may not turn the tide. I have made plenty of money for investment banks selling against various central banks. They provide liquidity to sell more in most circumstances....
  • The pound remains in crisis, it had another surge lower to $1.0350 overnight, although it has recouped all losses at the time of writing, caused by expectations that the Bank of England will release a statement or hold an emergency rate hiking meeting soon. The “doom spiral” for the pound is only being remedied on Monday by the prospect of BOE action, however, according to Bloomberg, the BOE has yet to decide if it will make a statement on the pound’s collapse to its lowest ever level versus the USD, and instead is watching the market closely. While the FX market is putting its faith in the BOE, we are a little more sceptical. If they can’t decide if they should intervene in the markets, then it’s unlikely any action...
  • Key highlights EUR/USD declined heavily below the 0.9900 support zone. It broke a major bullish trend line at 0.9970 on the 4-hours chart. EUR/USD technical analysis Looking at the 4-hours chart, the pair traded below the 0.9980 support level and a major bullish trend line. It opened the doors for a sharp move below the 0.9900 support zone. The pair settled below the 0.9900 level, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours). The decline gained pace below the 0.9800 support zone and the pair even traded below 0.9700. There was a more than 250 pips decline and the pair traded to a new 20-year low at 0.9550. It is now correcting losses and trading above the 0.9600 level. On the upside, an...
  • EUR/USD kick-started a new round of declines as flash PMIs figures across Europe pointed at a further fall in business activities with both the EU services and manufacturing PMIs edging lower in the contraction area weaker than expected. As seen on the four-hour chart, a decisive break below the 0.98065 barrier paved the way for euro sellers to try the 0.97434 hurdle, around the 161.8% Fibonacci projection of the last upswing from 0.98065 to 0.99086. If selling pressure intensifies at 0.97434, the price may overcome this obstacle, heading towards the next support at 0.97044. Further push below this level can bring more sellers to join the market and turn their attention towards 0.96412. Otherwise, should buyers retake control, they may keep the pair sideways between 0.97434 and 0.98065. Further traction...
  • WTI oil WTI oil price tumbled on Friday, hitting the lowest levels since early January, as dollar spiked to new 20-year high and growing demand fears as sharp increase of interest rates is driving major economies into recession. The contract was down over 5.5% for the day until now, with losses likely to extend as bears accelerated through key technical supports. Break of former low at $81.17 (Sep 8) signaled an end of corrective phase, with violation of psychological $80 support, adding to negative signals. WTI is on track for the fourth straight weekly drop, with likely weekly close below $83.13 (broken Fibo 38.2% of 2020/2022 $6.57/$130.48 recovery) to generate strong bearish signal, which will be reinforced by close below $80 level. Bears eye next pivotal supports at $78.48/$77.35 (Fibo...
  • Precious metals markets are trying to tough this week despite another large rate hike by the Federal Reserve. On Wednesday, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by three quarters as expected. Fed chairman Jerome Powell vowed to bring inflation down and restore price stability. Jerome Powell: My colleagues and I are strongly committed to bringing inflation back down to our 2% goal. We have both the tools we need and the resolve that it will take to restore price stability on behalf of American families and businesses. Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve and serves as the bedrock of our economy. Without price stability, the economy does not work for anyone. We are moving our policy stance purposefully to a level that will be sufficiently restrictive...
  • Central banks were front and center this week, as major institutions such as the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan (BoJ) and Bank of England (BoE) met to assess monetary policy in their respective economies. At a high level, policymakers generally communicated a hawkish outlook for monetary policy, although the Fed's updated “Dot Plot” garnered the most attention and resulted in renewed volatility across global financial markets. However, the BoJ's commitment to accommodative monetary policy and FX intervention from the Ministry of Finance were also notable, while U.K. financial markets tumbled in the aftermath of the BoE announcement and government fiscal stimulus. Heading into this week, we believed the U.S. dollar would continue to strengthen through the end of this year. After the events of this week, we have increased conviction...
  • S&P 500 continued its downswing without much of a respite even though bonds favored stocks to reach higher than they did one hour before the closing bell. Interestingly, VIX has barely moved in spite of the quite meaningful downside continuation – let alone Wednesday‘s reversal that caught so many off guard. Thankfully not you! Today, we‘re already below my direction-setting level described in these two tweets. USD is up, and much of the forex antidollar plays in disarray (beyond the usual suspect, Japan) – this isn‘t yet a dollar top. That‘s a consequence of Treasuries price action – no top in yields, not enough fresh buyers to make up for the vacated Fed place, is putting and will put even more serious pressure on asset prices. Keep enjoying the lively...
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